The Paris Agreement requires countries to commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that the global average temperature remains well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. But how likely are we to meet these targets?
Irrespective of tipping points, climate change adaptation efforts will be less costly and disruptive to society – and will stand a better chance of success – if warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher. We therefore in no way advocate for policies that forgo pursuing the ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C, regardless of whether that target remains feasible or not.
Climate scientists testing a new mathematical and statistical method that converts projections of future climate outcomes in a warming world into reliable probabilities have found there is a significant chance the Arctic could be ice-free even if world leaders meet the Paris targets of 1.5°C and 2°C.
Global Compact Network Australia plus panel (Breakfast series). A Just Transition: Integrating Social Dimensions into Climate Change. Description Businesses and investors have a critical role to play in accelerating urgent climate action and driving progress towards meeting the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Global Compact Network Australia (GCNA) invites you to an ‘in conversation’ breakfast to explore and identify the pathways to a low-carbon and resilient economy and highlight why a ‘just transition’ is gaining... View Article
Lavanya Rajamani (The Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi) The international climate change negotiations, plagued as they are by deep-seated and seemingly irresolvable differences, have had to demonstrate remarkable dexterity over the years in skirting political dysfunction to reach agreement. The agreements reached reflect innovation and experimentation in several respects: the architecture of the legal instruments adopted, the profusion of norms of differing legal character in these instruments, the forms of differentiation between developed and developing countries, and even in... View Article
An international group of scientists has now forecast the likelihood global warming will exceed 1.5C over the next 5 years. This is one of the thresholds of the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement, which aims “to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C”.
The Heatwaves and Cold Outbreaks Research Program is in full swing, welcoming a new associate investigator in Debbie Hudson from the Bureau of Meteorology and pressing ahead with research across a range of areas.
In relation to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C and 2°C, new research shows the differences in results between pattern-scaling and climate model output were primarily due to forcings other than changes to greenhouse gas emissions.
Past observations suggest future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models under business-as-usual scenarios and sea levels may rise 6m at 2°C.